Monday, December 08, 2008

Here's some brilliant logic

I was told that a NAS study from 2004 had found that firearm owners were more likely to commit suicide using a firearm.

Well, yes, unless you assume that people are borrowing firearms to take their lives, I would guess you would have to assume that. "Hey, Bob, can I borrow your Glock? I'd like to take my own life--OK if it's returned with my brains all over it?"

"Sure, Fred. Just be sure to use hollowpoints so you don't damage the sheetrock. .40S&W penetrates, you know."

I looked it up, and I don't believe that the study actually claimed this, but it was really funny. (it also turns out that when the time-frame and other factors are changed for looking at suicide rates, the actual NAS conclusion that firearm ownership is related to to suicide rates in general also is iffy at best)

Correction: Uber writes and informs me that the NAS did indeed claim to statistically verify something that ought to be self-evident to anyone who has passed Logic 101. This of course puts a lot of doubt about whether their other statistical tests are worth anything, either.

4 comments:

Night Writer said...

I just bought a revolver that allows you to chamber either .410 shotgun shells or Colt .45 bullets. Took the Missus and one daughter to the range Saturday so they could familiarize themselves with it and try their aim. The .410 and the 45s make an impressive pattern at 10 feet, which is a realistic home defense distance. At 25 feet using just the .45s my wife cut the X-ring with her first shot!

So, if I wanted to commit suicide I wouldn't have to borrow a gun. All I'd have to do is say, "Honey, have you gained weight?"

Bike Bubba said...

...and the beauty of that plan is that there are THREE women in your house that you could get killed by, and all without getting your beautiful new gun spattered with your brains!

And I've got you beat by two daughters. Wow. If I ever get suicidal, I can just say the word and BOOM, it's done.

uBeR said...

You do not think the NAS stated this even though you did not bother read the report? The report makes it abundantly clear, in fact.

"Research has found, for example, that higher rates of household firearms ownership are associated with higher rates of gun suicide . . ."

"Do guns increase the lethality or frequency of suicide attempts? A large body of literature links the availability of firearms to the fraction of suicides committed with a gun."

"States, regions, and countries with higher rates of household gun ownership have higher rates of gun suicide. There is also cross-sectional, ecological association between gun ownership and overall risk of suicide, but this association is more modest than the association between gun ownership and gun suicide; it is less consistently observed across time, place, and persons; and the causal relation remains unclear."

Bike Bubba said...

I'll correct that, then. They are bigger idiots than I had given them credit for.