Friday, August 06, 2010

Is that deflation?

Check out the implicit definition of "deflation" in the tenth paragraph of this article linked by my friend Jim;  more or less, the New York Times is arguing (along with two prominent economic analysts) that "stable prices" (0% inflation) is equivalent to deflation--which is usually defined by mainstream economists as a drop in prices.

Interesting bait and switch, and what's even more interesting is the implicit assumption; that when prices do not rise, the economy will stall.  The analysts are more or less assuming that every borrower requires prices to rise (including their revenues/income) in order to make their debt payments. 

Thankfully, if there is a threat of deflation (we've had only one quarter of actual price dropping since 1954), it's not something that tends to hurt the economy.  The 1954 deflation actually ended the 1953-1954 recession, and....the previous deflation in the 1930s actually accompanied an improvement in the economy then--which of course FDR torpedoed in 1937 with ill advised spending.  Recessions end when the reward for using your money exceeds the security of keeping it in the bank, or under your mattress, and deflation is key to this.

So if you care about the economy, pay off your debts and pray for deflation.  Actually, if enough of us pay off debts, we will get some, and it will be a good thing.

Unless, of course, the new FDR (and this is not a compliment), Barack Hussein Roosevelt Ayers Rezko Daley Blagojevich Khalidi Wright Pfleger Jackson Alinsky Soetoro Obama, does something incredibly foolish, like releasing people from their foolishly contracted debts.

1 comment:

W.B. Picklesworth said...

By the pricking of my thumbs,
Something foolish this way comes.