Tuesday, August 19, 2025

Let's put this into the cost equation

A study from my alma mater, Michigan State, has concluded that for a more electrified future with up to two million EVs on the road, about 66,000 more chargers will be needed in Michigan.  Interestingly, that's about the number EVs on the road in Michigan right now.  

But for perspective, there are just short of 200,000 gas stations in the U.S, and just over 6000 in Michigan serving about 2.7 million passenger vehicles, plus trucks, motorcycles, and other uses.  Now if I do the math for my own vehicles, I find that about every 300-400 miles, or ten hours of driving, I will need to spend about ten minutes or less fueling the vehicle.  So I have a drive: fuel ratio of about 60 or more.  Each vehicle will require about 7 hours at the pump each year, so those 6000 gas stations will be used about 700 hours per year, or with five pumps per station, each pump will be used about 2.5% of the time.  

In contrast, best practices for an EV indicate that for every 200-250 miles (you never want to run an electric until the batteries run out) or 5-6 hours of driving, you will recharge (level 2 charger) for about....6-12 hours.  So your drive:fuel ratio drops by a factor of 100.  Even if you use "superchargers", you end up with a drive: fuel ratio of only about 10:1.

So if Michigan indeed ends up with millions of EVs, and each one gets driven 300 hours per year, that requires 3-500 hours per year of charging.  If you have a mere 66000 chargers, that means, with two million cars, the amount of charging hours needed exceeds the available chargers by a wide margin.  Even if only 25% of charging is done outside the home, that means that charging infrastructure would be subject to long wait times.  10% is probably the upper bound for what could be tolerated.

Long and short of it is that the MSU study underestimates the infrastructure for EVs by a wide margin, even assuming large numbers of home charging units--and renters will often not be able to have these, because what landlord is going to approve the installation of a 240V charging unit.  Maybe it's time for advocates of EVs to start calculating metrics honestly.

No comments: