Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Awesome

Apparently, the Social Security trust fund runs out in 2035, and I will, Lord willing, hit 67 in 2036.  So on the off chance that someone on either side of the aisle will actually give up demagoguery and listen to reason, here are some realities.

  • There is no such thing as a foolproof lockbox that will preserve the value of Social Security funds.
  • There is no such thing as a politician or bureaucrat who can be trusted to fill out proxy forms for the benefit of investors.
  • If there isn't a sufficient economy to pay benefits, neither can the government tax the non-existent economy (via taxes or borrowing) to pay them.
  • If the government tries, it risks a hyperinflation like that which ravaged the Weimar Republik in Germany and brought the Nazis to power.
  • The best thing you can do is take reasonable steps to create an economy that grows, and enable people to take care of themselves.
As I've noted before, the chief flaw of Socialist Insecurity and Mediscare is that it tells people that the government will pick up the tab for their retirement, and hence the traditional ways of dealing with the years where one will be unable to work as one once did are degraded--having children, developing family and neighborhood relationships, and the like.  So what do we do?

  • Reduce COLA formula by 1%.  Yes, it's painful for those on fixed incomes without outside sources of income, but it's easier to plan for this than for a 17% (or more) drop in 2035.
  • Tax reform.   If indeed the cost of compliance with the tax code is hundreds of billions of dollars, we can save a LOT by going to smarter ways of taxation and improve our ability to take care of ourselves.  I'd suggest starting with a 10% revenue tariff (doubled for nations that don't respect IP rights) and a $30/ton of carbon tax for fossil fuels, and an accompanying drop in income taxes.
  • Retirement reform and reform of tax-privileged accounts.  Instead of HSA, FSA, IRA (Roth and standard), college savings accounts, and more, why not allow people to merge these accounts and use them multiple ways?  Then eliminate RMDs and make it fully heritable.  If you save well, you get to take care of the next generation.

All in all, government needs to realize that they are not the solution here, and the main thing they can do is get out of the way.

3 comments:

Mark said...

Why the "$30/ton of carbon tax for fossil fuels"?

Bike Bubba said...

It's a better option than subsidies for "green energy", combined with the income tax. No tax is perfect, but this one at least would drive sensible priorities--efficiency, etc..

Mark said...

It feels like a "sin tax." How about a compromise - put the tax on exported fossil fuels? Encourage domestic use of domestic energy while not outlawing export.