An abuse of science

Here's an interesting column noting that the World Health Organization apparently flubbed one of the most basic questions about epidemiology, the question of transmission and whether airborne transmission is a thing.  Now this is really a question, in my view, of "which hypothesis gets assigned as the null hypothesis?", and there's a corollary question of "if history doesn't strongly suggest one side of the argument as the null hypothesis, what do you do statistically?".  

For the uninitiated, the null hypothesis is the base--the idea you keep if you don't find sufficient evidence to reject it.  If you do not perform a test with adequate statistical strength, you will almost always retain it, even if it's false.

In this case, it was well known that coronavirii transmit through aerosols already, and hence I'd argue that the null hypothesis ought to have been that to some degree, COVID-19 would be transmitted that way.  WHO's estimate that this was false appears to have driven any number of wrong interventions against the disease, sadly, and it's an appraisal that seems to be strongly linked to the reasons why mask mandates (and even masks, H/T Powerline), lockdowns, contact tracing, and the like do not seem to have been effective at slowing or stopping the spread of the disease. 

If it's an aerosol transmission, then you can get it from any number of places and have absolutely no clue about why or where you got it.  That certainly was my family's case.  It also illustrates why admitting COVID patients into nursing homes was so deadly--no matter what precautions you took, it was going to spread simply due to the shared HVAC systems.

The one good thing about this is that it is a good illustration of how irresponsible researchers can "bend" research to their own ends by playing games with which notion is the null hypothesis.  I've seen it a fair amount, obviously most strongly where the taxpayer is paying the bill for the work.

Maybe it wouldn't work

As much as I am enjoying the notion of food poisoning being the cause of Putin's hopeful demise,  upon reading the latest news from the Russian foreign service--claims that the Russian army is attacking a nation that is armed to the teeth, full of Nazis, and developing nuclear weapons--I must conclude that the Russian government has supplanted Russia's fertilizer industry with a massive supply of, ahem, natural fertilizer.  So slipping Putin a Oie a la Depp would probably be less excrement than Putin is already used to injesting.  One has to wonder whether he, in the mode of the Dread Pirate Roberts, has built up his immunity....

But seriously, the fact of the matter is that nations that are actually winning wars rarely resort to "spreading the fertilizer" in this way because they can talk about cities conquered, enemies vanquished, and the like.  Especially funny is the claim that Ukraine is somehow full of Nazis, but none of them have apparently ever bothered to trash a synagogue, set up a death camp, or even steal a yarmulke from a rabbi or harass a little Jewish girl with a ham sandwich.  Wimpiest Nazis ever, and Herr Schicklgruber would be appalled.

My best guess here is that they're hoping that their rhetoric will throw gullible people off the track of what they're really doing long enough to salvage half a decent agreement with Kyiv and, probably more importantly, prevent a day of reckoning with a Russian populace that may someday learn that a needless war against an innocent country has deprived their country of its economy and 22000 + of their sons.

(I am using Ukrainian numbers, yes, as they seem to be closely followed by NATO and U.S. estimates.  They seem to be basically honest)

May that day of reckoning come soon for the Soviet Politburo Russian ruling class.  Putin delenda est!

On the light side....

...an Illinois couple has discovered a six decade old meal from McDonald's in the wall of their bathroom, and amazingly enough, after so long, it was still inedible.   (send it to Putin!)

Also in the "foods I won't touch but will send to Moscow" category, apparently Johnny Depp described his ex-wife as "as full of **** as a Christmas goose".   So completely apart from the question over whether either Depp or Heard is telling the truth in the evidence at her defamation trial, I just have to say that Mr. Depp is a wee bit unclear on exactly how you're supposed to stuff a bird.  But yes, I'd send Depp's cooking to Moscow for Putin to eat.

Hideous picture of nationalized healthcare

In Canada, the wait for routine hip replacements that happen within a few weeks in the U.S. is apparently 15 months--well, they promised 15 months, but 3 years after the diagnosis of operable damage to the hip, a Canadian is still waiting to hear back from their government health authorities.  Thankfully, she was able to go to Lithuania to get it done last fall. 

One wonders how many Canadians are on disability because their national health service isn't getting these important "quality of life" operations done, and what the cost is because these people cannot work.

On a related note, socialized healthcare may be partly to blame for the death of our family friend Sam Perry.  His death came after a large heart attack and about a week in an NHS hospital, but I did not hear anything about stents, open heart surgery, or other treatments typically used in the U.S. to improve the life chances of cardiac patients.  In fact, I'm pretty sure this played a role, as 25% of cardiac patients in the UK wait over four months for these life-saving procedures.

Yes, bypass surgery and stents are expensive, but let's consider the alternatives.  And of course, Putin delenda est!

"Defender of the church", my.....

Apparently Russian forces have installed a statue of Lenin in Ukraine.  So I think we can jettison the notion that somehow former KGB agent Vladimir Putin is working to re-establish religion in Russia (and elsewhere).  Lenin, of course, had unbridled brutality to the churches of the Soviet Union, and hence Putin is showing his hand.  Of course, this is not a surprise to anyone who's been watching the invasion target hospitals, schools, and residential areas instead of military targets.  Real Christians should not be terrorists this way.

Lord willing, when Ukraine triumphs over the Soviet Russian army, that statue ought to be melted down to make chamber pots, yes, with portraits of Lenin and Putin in them.  And of course, Putin delenda est!

Now here's a huge surprise.

 After the prison systems in New Jersey started to allow male prisoners who considers themselves "transgender" to be housed in women's prisons, two inmates are pregnant in a facility that apparently already has a long history of sexual abuse of prisoners by staff.

What a shocker.   Well, I guess it is something of a shocker that in a state with over 20,000 prison inmates, only a few of them actually figured out that they could play "The Dating Game" in the women's prison by declaring themselves to be transgender.  Hopefully those playing this game do not end up "playing the guards" by actually committing sexual assault.

Really, our level of thinking is a step below what my level of thinking was back in middle school, when I and my friends contemplated (in a rather vulgar way I'll not repeat here) what would end up happening when girls started to join wrestling teams.  Why is it that 13 year old boys seem to have a better feel for what the results of a policy might be than our policy elites do?

Hats off to the Washington Post

Now I don't write those words often, but this column (summarized here by WND) is a wonderful addition to the debate over being "trans positive" and such.  More or less, Mr. Cohn transitioned to "female" at age 19 after being estranged from his family and believing himself to be homosexual--and he thought he'd have better luck with the men if he appeared outwardly female.  

This parallels one of the big theories about gender disphoria--that a significant portion of those suffering it are really homosexuals, and the end game of surgeries is that it changes intact homosexuals into nonfunctional homosexuals, really.  What Mr. Cohn learned as well is that a "synthetic vagina" doesn't quite have the same, err, "performance" as the real thing, and so what he's experienced is an extremely painful and expensive way of becoming incapable of enjoying sex while making one dependent on serious medical treatment to function for a shortened lifespan.  He's also learned the hard way that--as the Babylon Bee hilariously spoofed--men can generally tell what gender the doctor announced, and what the doctor announced determines what they're going to be attracted to.

Really, just about exactly what most of us suspected from the moment we learned that this was a thing, no?  Unfortunately, it's probably going to take our country thousands of needless mutilations to figure it out and start taking more action.

Strong action on ghost threats?

Apparently the Biden administration is set to take action to crack down on "ghost guns".  For the uninitiated, "ghost guns" are guns without serial numbers, constructed from a receiver kit with a barrel and stock added, and it takes a fair amount of expertise and tools to construct one.  Since they're hard to track, the administration wants to classify the receiver as a gun (which it is not) and require background checks to sell them.

Lost in the debate is the question of exactly how many people are murdered using "ghost guns" each year, and the answer, according to Brady/Everytown for Gun Safety/Handgun Control Inc./whatever they're calling themselves now is "maybe 20 per year." 

If you really wanted to save lives and stop gun violence, what you'd do is work with states and cities to hire more homicide detectives and start solving murders, but apparently security theater is more the speed of President Biden.  

Diplomatic horsefeathers

Today, apparently Russian foreign bullshit artist foreign minister Sergey Lavrov suggested that Belarus, from which Russia launched her attack on northern Ukraine, and from whence Russia is launching a ton of rockets at civilian targets to this day, is somehow a good candidate for a nation to protect the territorial integrity of Ukraine.  In related news, Adolf Hitler, Antiochus Epiphanes, and Haman have called from Hell and are volunteering to protect the national security of Israel.

It is perhaps understandable that the Russian foreign minister might do this, but let's take a look at reality vs. the security guarantees that were given to Ukraine at independence.  More or less, in exchange for the nuclear weapons that were in Ukraine, the signing nations (including Russia) agreed to guarantee the territorial integrity of Ukraine.  It sort of made sense to the diplomats at the time, but anyone with functioning neurons ought to have imagined this scenario.

Diplomat: Mr. President, Russia has invaded Ukraine.  It's time for us to do what we can to guarantee their territorial integrity.

President (of either party):  Are you (redacted) nuts?  They have nukes.

Which is, of course, exactly what's gone on, and it's exactly why someone needs to have something of a "come to Jesus moment" with diplomats and politicians, telling them if you have no intention of ever enforcing the provisions of an agreement, please don't write it down and sign it.

The reason is simple; if Ukraine had figured out that their security guarantees were worthless (and to be fair, they should have), they likely would have made some very different decisions regarding national security, perhaps looking much more like the Swiss model.  And so we might add another proverb; if you know a diplomatic agreement is nonsense, don't act as if it is binding.

And of course, as always, Putin delenda est!

Shades of Tannennberg

 Apparently the German intelligence service has repeated its exploits from 1914 by intercepting Russian soldiers talking about their war crimes near Kyiv.  (part of the horrific loss at Tannenberg was because Samsunov and Rennenkampf broadcast battle instructions in straight AM)  Hopefully this leads to meaningful prosecutions, and of course, Putin delenda est.

Paging Julie London

 Apparently Russia is really, really offended that somebody--they believe somebody from Ukraine--has hit an oil depot in Russia.   Oh, the poor dears, they could never have known that when they invaded Ukraine, the Ukrainians might fight back and hit military targets, specifically a fuel depot that was necessary for getting their troops out of Kharkiv, Ukraine and on to other assignments.

Yeah, cry me a river, Vladiie-poo, or perhaps, "Crimea River", as P.D.Q. Bach joked.  If Russia wasn't ready to have consequences to their war of aggression, they made the wrong choice back in February.  And quite frankly, maybe they could take a lesson from their opponents and restrict their targets to militarily significant targets instead of stocking up on war crimes by targeting schools, hospitals, and residential areas?

So here's a bit of Julie London, and of course, Putina delenda est.