Tuesday, October 11, 2022

You know, they're right in a way

Austria is suing the EU because the EU, trying desperately to salvage their "green" agenda, has declared natural gas and nuclear power to be renewables. Now of course, there's a given amount of natural gas in the earth, a given amount of uranium in the earth, and once the economically recoverable reserves are gone, they're gone.  So in a way, the Austrians are right--the EU is playing games to salvage their so-called "green" agenda.  Apart from methane from garbage dumps and decay of things like agricultural wastes, natural gas isn't renewable, and neither is uranium.  You can increase the capabilities of the latter through breeder reactors and such, but and the end of the day, when it's lead, it's gone.

Now the obvious question, then, is whether, even apart from the question of whether natural gas and nuclear qualify as renewables, we can achieve a renewable economy in the near future.  In that light, we need to remember the sun goes down at dusk, and the wind generally dies down at that point as well.  So without large energy storage devices, "clean energy" is at an impasse--at least until we get breeder reactors to work without a risk of proliferation, fusion, and massive battery banks.

That noted, let's consider that hypothetical "green" future.  We would have, since the sun goes down at night, and since the wind dies down during the day, more or less two systems that, if they kept going 24-7, would theoretically be able to power the whole system.  Then, since neither system works at dawn or dusk, peak power usage times, you've got a third system--renewable or otherwise--that is fully capable of carrying peak load.

In other words, you are paying for three systems (all of which could be far more expensive than the one they've got now) that almost do the job of one, and that simply doesn't pass any ROI test--and accordingly, Germany's partial implementation of the same has resulted in far higher electric bills than they ought to have.

Really, what needs to happen is what I remember from a quarter century ago; manmade carbon dioxide emissions and methane use needs to be "scored" vs. natural emissions of carbon dioxide and methane with a sober eye--as in "if manmade emissions are only a small portion of natural, let's not sweat it so much".  There will come days, most likely, when we no longer have sufficient fossil fuels to supply our needs, and we'll need to have something else in store.  That day, however, is not tomorrow.

1 comment:

SJBC said...

The distinction between "renewables" and "non-renewables" is not always important. Fossil fuel sources in the crust of the Earth, if not utilized by humans productively, are going to enter the atmosphere at some point in the future; just much slower and with no benefit to humanity. There is also no practical substitutes for some of these fossil fuel products, such as aviation fuel or metallurgical coal.